The Predictions Are In

The 73rd annual Academy Awards also known as the Oscars will be held in Los Angeles at 8 p.m. March 25 on ABC (Channel 8). The annual awards gala recognizes the best in film making for the previous year’s movies. The Roman epic “Gladiator” leads the pack with 12 nominations and the Taiwanese action-adventure “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” earned 10. The other major nominees include “Erin Brockovich,” “Traffic” and “Chocolat” with five nominations each. The nominees along with our predictions for the major awards follow:

His by David Reese

Best Picture
“Chocolat”
“Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
“Erin Brockovich”
“Gladiator”
“Traffic”
Should win: “Traffic”
Will win: “Gladiator”

I think it is the first time in many years that there is a true horse race for the best picture category. The nomination of “Chocolat” in this category has confused many reviewers, including me. I think the nomination is reward enough for the enchanting tale of love and chocolate. I eliminate “Erin Brockovich,” because I think it will be recognized in other categories. “Traffic” is the most deserving film in the bunch, but I think its edgier subject matter will frighten the older voting members. I think the award will come down to “Gladiator” and “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.” The Roman epic is a typical Academy Award-winning film like many past winners, including “Ben-Hur” and “Braveheart.” All critics have hailed “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” but it is a foreign film and I think that may hurt the film’s chances. Although I do not believe it is the best film in this category, I think “Gladiator” will slaughter the competition.

Best Director
Stephen Daldry “Billy Elliot”
Ang Lee “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
Ridley Scott “Gladiator”
Steven Soderbergh “Erin Brockovich”
Steven Soderbergh “Traffic”
Should win: Steven Soderbergh “Traffic”
Will win: Ang Lee “Crouching Tiger, Hidden
Dragon”

I have to begin by stating that I think this award should be given to Soderbergh hands down. Any person who directs two dynamic films in one year should win, but that may be the problem. The voters will have a tough time deciding which Soderbergh film to reward, so it will probably split his chances. I think Daldry should be happy for the nomination, because he has no chance whatsoever. In the last 20 years, there has only been three times that the Best Picture and Director were not representing the same film. I think this year will mark the fourth. Although Scott is admired, and “Gladiator” is a visually stimulating film, Lee from “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” will win the award. Recently, Lee won the Director’s Guild of America’s best directing award which 48 out of 52 years has predicted the Oscar winner. I think voters will feel they need to recognize this film in other ways than the technical categories and awarding the mastermind behind the film will suit them.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem “Before Night Falls”
Russell Crowe “Gladiator”
Tom Hanks “Cast Away”
Ed Harris “Pollock”
Geoffrey Rush “Quills”
Should win: Tom Hanks “Cast Away”
Will win: Too close to call, either Hanks or Crowe

This is one of the hardest categories to predict. I think Rush is a fine actor but he is out because he won four years ago for a better performance in “Shine.” Bardem was a refreshing surprise and although he probably would win this award in other circles, he is in a foreign film and the Academy recognized Roberto Benigni two years ago for a foreign language role. Harris of “Pollock” is an Academy favorite who has never won. Plus, Harris directed the film, which might help his chances. I wouldn’t dismiss Harris from the race, but I think it comes down to Hanks in “Cast Away” and Crowe in “Gladiator.” Crowe should of won last year for “The Insider,” and this may be his pay back. The negative on Crowe is that he was seen as the reason for the breakup of the long-time Hollywood marriage of Meg Ryan and Dennis Quaid. I believe Hanks should win the award, because he is a terrific actor and he carried the entire film. The only negative is that Hanks has won twice within the last decade. No other actor has won three best lead acting awards ever, but I feel eventually, they will have to and Hanks should be the one.

Best Actress

Joan Allen “The Contender”
Juliette Binoche “Chocolat”
Ellen Burstyn “Requiem for a Dream”
Laura Linney “You Can Count on Me”
Julia Roberts “Erin Brockovich”
Should win: Julia Roberts “Erin Brockovich”
Will win: Julia Roberts “Erin Brockovich”

There is no doubt that Roberts is the front runner for this award and she should be. Roberts should have won 11 years ago when she was nominated for best supporting actress in “Steel Magnolias.” Instead the Academy chose Brenda Fricker from “My Left Foot.” Over a decade later, Roberts is the highest-paid actress in history and one of the biggest movie stars in the world. Fricker was last seen in “Angels in the Outfield” about five years ago. Many times, the Academy likes to pull a fast one and pick some off-the-wall person and snub the front runner. I would not be surprised if they gave the award to veteran actress, Burstyn, for all of the years of good performances. It is unfair to think that they would do that but it is possible. My bet is still on Roberts, because she has already won the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild awards for the performance of her career.

Best Supporting Actor

Jeff Bridges “The Contender”
Willem Dafoe “Shadow of a
Vampire”
Benicio Del Toro “Traffic”
Albert Finney “Erin Brockovich”
Joaquin Phoenix “Gladiator”
Should win: Benicio Del Toro “Traffic”
Will win: Benicio Del Toro
“Traffic”

First, I will eliminate Dafoe because the film was not seen by anyone, along with the fact that the Academy already gave Martin Landau this award a few years ago for playing a similarly creepy character in “Ed Wood.” I think Phoenix is a talented actor, and I do believe he will eventually win an Oscar but not for this role. The Academy always seems to be playing catch up with actors who deserved it for other films but did not win. The best supporting actor and actress categories have been famous for these types of pay backs, like Michael Caine, James Coburn, Judi Dench and Robin Williams in recent years. This year has two possible candidates, including Bridges and Finney. Bridges has had three previous nominations with no wins, while Finney has had four previous nominations with no wins. Finney is the more likely candidate because his film was more widely seen. But putting aside the sentimental choices, I think the Academy will recognize Del Toro for his role as a Tijuana cop in “Traffic.” He was absolutely brilliant in this film. Del Toro is Puerto Rican, so he had to learn a different dialect for his Spanish speaking parts. Plus, the Academy will feel they need to award someone from the terrific ensemble cast of “Traffic” and he will be the one.

Best Supporting Actress

Judi Dench “Chocolat”
Marcia Gay Harden “Pollock”
Kate Hudson “Almost Famous”
Frances McDormand “Almost
Famous”
Julie Walters “Billy Elliot”
Should win: Frances McDormand
“Almost Famous”
Will win: Kate Hudson
“Almost Famous”

The best supporting actress category has always proven to be the strangest and usually the dark horses tend to win. For example, no one in recent memory will forget the two biggest upsets in the last decade. First, Marisa Tomei in “My Cousin Vinny” stunned the audience when she won, especially since she hadn’t been nominated in any pre-Oscar awards. The second came the very next year when 10-year-old Anna Paquin, “The Piano,” defeated Winona Ryder and Emma Thompson. At the moment, I think any of these actresses have a chance, but Hudson is leading the pack. Hudson is the daughter of Goldie Hawn and the stepdaughter of Kurt Russell. The children of Hollywood legends have always had good luck at the Oscars, including Angelina Jolie, Liza Minnelli, Mira Sorvino, Anjelica Huston and Jane Fonda. McDormand should win this award, but she won for “Fargo” four years ago, and Dench won two years ago. The big surprise could come from Walters of “Billy Elliot” for a long respected career.