The Predictions Are In

The 73rd annual Academy Awards also known as the Oscars will be held in Los Angeles at 8 p.m. March 25 on ABC (Channel 8). The annual awards gala recognizes the best in film making for the previous year’s movies. The Roman epic “Gladiator” leads the pack with 12 nominations and the Taiwanese action-adventure “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” earned 10. The other major nominees include “Erin Brockovich,” “Traffic” and “Chocolat” with five nominations each. The nominees along with our predictions for the major awards follow:

Hers by Emily Ward

Best Picture
“Chocolat”
“Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
“Erin Brockovich”
“Gladiator”
“Traffic”
Should win: “Traffic”
Will win: “Gladiator”

There should be no question whether or not “Traffic” will win best picture, but leave it to the Academy to completely rob Steven Soderbergh on Oscar night. Despite the overall greatness of this film about drug trafficking, I have a feeling the Russell Crowe epic will receive the thumbs up. “Gladiator” has had much more hype and popularity with movie-goers because of its dynamic special effects, outstanding screenplay and beautiful actors and actresses. “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” is unquestionably one of the best in this category, but it will be another “Life is Beautiful,” securing the best foreign film Oscar but not the one for best picture. As for the other two films in this category, they shouldn’t even be here.

Best Cinematography
Peter Pau, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
John Mathieson,
“Gladiator”
Lajos Koltai, “Malena”
Roger Deakins, “O
Brother, Where
Art Thou?”
Caleb Deschanel, “The
Patriot”
Should win: John Mathieson, “Gladiator” or Peter Pau, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
Will win: John Mathieson, “Gladiator”

Although I would like to say “Traffic” would win for best cinematography, it was wrongfully left out of this category. So I have to go with second best. The camera work on both “Gladiator” and “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” was far beyond outstanding. There was never a moment in either of these films when I did not feel as if I was with the character fighting tigers or flying through the trees. In a word, the cinematography in both films was beautiful. I think “Gladiator” will take the gold simply because I think the Academy will be hesitant to pick a foreign film over an American-made epic.

Best Director

Stephen Daldry “Billy Elliot”
Ang Lee “Crouching Tiger, Hidden
Dragon”
Ridley Scott “Gladiator”
Steven Soderbergh “Erin
Brockovich”
Steven Soderbergh “Traffic”
Should win: Steven Soderbergh “Traffic”
Will win: Steven Soderbergh “Traffic” or Ang Lee “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”

The winner in this category shouldn’t even be in question. Steven Soderbergh was undoubtedly the man of the year, and it’s easy to see that “Traffic” is a much better film than “Erin Brockovich.” The fact that members of the Academy have to choose between his two films, however, is what may be detrimental to Soderbergh’s chances. So as easy as it is to say that this fabulous director should get what he deserves, it is still just a little hard for me to predict him as the winner. Ang Lee, with his outstanding work on “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” should be the one to replace Soderbergh if he walks away empty handed. And like I said before, I have a feeling the Academy will rob Soderbergh on Oscar night.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem “Before Night Falls”
Russell Crowe “Gladiator”
Tom Hanks “Cast Away”
Ed Harris “Pollock”
Geoffrey Rush “Quills”
Should win: Russell Crowe “Gladiator”
Will win: Russell Crowe “Gladiator”

If members of the Academy have any sense still left within them, they will not pick Hanks as best actor this year. Yes, I think Hanks did a fantastic job in “Cast Away,” but I think it’s pretty evident by now that he is a good actor ... he doesn’t need a third Oscar to prove it. Plus, Crowe’s acting was extraordinary in “Gladiator,” and Hanks was not nearly as memorable as Crowe last year. I think the Academy will have trouble picking between the two, but I have some faith that they will go with the better man. Besides that, I would hate to see Crowe get cheated out of a best actor Oscar for the second year in a row ... it’s about time he got just rewards. As for Rush, he was outstanding in “Quills,” but I have no expectations that the Academy would pick him over the other blockbuster actors.

Best Supporting Actor

Jeff Bridges “The Contender”
Willem Dafoe “Shadow of a Vampire”
Benicio Del Toro “Traffic”
Albert Finney “Erin Brockovich”
Joaquin Phoenix “Gladiator”
Should win: Benicio Del Toro “Traffic”
Will win: Benicio Del Toro “Traffic”

Nobody can deny how awesome Benicio Del Toro was in “Traffic.” Not to mention, the guy is good in everything he has ever done. The part that makes me like Del Toro the most in “Traffic” is the fact that even though I was so in tune with the camera work, screenplay and editing, he still blew me away with his subtle greatness. His accent was right on, and his demeanor was perfect for his role in the film. The only person I think could compete with Del Toro in this category is Phoenix, another actor who has rarely let me down in his acting performances. His character was so emotional, and he had just about every possible mood swing in “Gladiator.” He was the perfect villain in a nearly perfect film. But he still has nothing next to the suave Del Toro.

Best Original Song

“A Fool in Love,” music and lyrics by Randy
Newman
“Meet the Parents”“I’ve Seen it All,” music
by Bjork, lyrics by Lars von Trier and Sjon
Sigurdsson,
“Dancer in the Dark”“A Love Before Time,”
music by Jorge Calandrelli and Tan Dun,
lyrics by James Schamus
“Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”“My Funny
Friend and Me,” music by Sting and David
Hartley, lyrics by Sting
“The Emperor’s New Groove” “Things Have
Changed,” music and lyrics by Bob Dylan,
“Wonder Boys”
Should win: “Things Have Changed,” music and lyrics by Bob Dylan, “Wonder Boys”
Will win: “Things Have Changed,” music and lyrics by Bob Dylan, “Wonder Boys”

I admit the competition is a little tough, but not nearly enough to keep Dylan from taking stage with his new Oscar on March 25. This is one of the categories I am most anxious about, because I think Dylan’s song was one of the best I heard all year. The lyrics go so perfectly with the mood of “Wonder Boys,” and of course, the music is as catchy as ever. I also like Sting’s song for “The Emperor’s New Groove,” but it isn’t really comparable to “Things Have Changed.” Bjork’s song from “Dancer in the Dark” would have a pretty good shot as well, but I don’t think the Academy would pick it mainly because it was not that popular of a film.