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Men’s NCAA bid all but lost
An Analysis

By Sam Eaton

With the TCU men’s basketball team’s one-point loss in overtime Saturday, the chance for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament has all but disappeared.

For the second time in the school year, the Frogs came up short in a major sporting contest that took place in San Jose, Calif. The first, of course, was the football team’s first loss of the season that knocked it out of the nation’s top 10.

And Saturday night, it happened again. Fighting for their lives, the Frogs fell to the Spartans, 91-90, in overtime.

Despite a 102-87 loss to Hawaii last Thursday on the islands, the Frogs still had a legitimate shot at a NCAA Tournament bid.

Now it looks like their only chance to make the big dance will be at the Western Athletic Conference Tournament next week in Tulsa, Okla. Fresno State will be in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens because they’ve been tough all season. The Bulldogs will probably be the only WAC team in the NCAA Tournament if they win the conference tournament, but Tulsa could be the favorite on its home court. After two straight wins, TCU has lost two in a row. In a week, the Frogs’ Rating Percentage Index ranking dropped from 49 to 66. That, along with a 7-7 conference record, won’t get it done.

The RPI measures all NCAA Division I basketball teams based on record and strength of schedule. The strength of schedule is determined by figuring the combined records of all a team’s opponents and the opponents’ opponents.

It is a primary gauge the NCAA Selection Committee uses to decide which teams get at-large bids. Wins against Division II teams do not count in the RPI.

But TCU hasn’t been completely eliminated. Both of the Frogs’ remaining games are against better WAC teams — Texas-El Paso and Southern Methodist. These games will help the Frogs’ strength of schedule, which is a major factor in the RPI.

If the Frogs can find a way to win both of those and get some help to finish in a multi-way tie for second in the conference, their tourney chances would rise.

Another factor the selection committee looks at is a team’s road and neutral court records. The Frogs are now 2-7 on the road and 1-2 on a neutral court.

Playing only two non-conference road games may have hurt the Frogs in preparing for the conference schedule. They defeated Texas-San Antonio and lost to Butler in December.

Sam Eaton is a junior broadcast journalism major from San Diego.
He can be reached at (
s.m.eaton@student.tcu.edu).

 

 
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